Environmental Surprise
Reports of an insectageddon are greatly exaggerated...for now
“Nature is under siege.” When even a scientific article began this way, it seemed like it was unquestionably a time for action. Research was appearing to show a dramatic decline in insect populations, with potentially dire implications for humanity.
A paper from a team led by Caspar Hallman was the most stark, finding that the biomass of insects at German protected areas had dropped by three quarters in a few short decades. Other articles followed, painting a troubling picture for biodiversity.
Journalists relayed these gloomy results, pairing them with anecdotes about drivers seeing fewer splats on their windshields, at least according to their recollections.
The German government acted decisively, responding with a law that banned RoundUp and restricted other agricultural chemicals. Agricultural intensification was the suspected culprit, and the Bundestag wasn’t going to wait around for additional study before acting. German farmers drove their tractors into downtown Berlin in protest.
This seemed like a case of environmental politics finally going right. Scientists discovered a threat, and governments acted. If only we could “follow the science” elsewhere.
In a few corners of the media and in scientific journals, however, doubts existed about the certainty of the insectageddon. Studies involving other research sites turned out differently. Some showed no clear pattern, or found some kinds of insects to even be thriving. Reviewing these results, ecologist Manu Saunders argued that the “biggest concern” regarding insect life is really “how little we know about it.”
A recently published paper just upended the whole narrative. Led by Joerg Mueller, the research team had noted a surprising increase in insect biomass since Caspar Hallman’s original paper (albeit at different research sites). Reanalyzing Hallman’s data uncovered that “weather anomalies” or usually long or extreme dry, hot, and/or cold spells explained the decadal decline and recent upswing.
While those results do suggest that reports of an impending insect apocalypse were greatly exaggerated, they don’t mean that all is well. If climate models are correct, anomalous weather will become more frequent. Future heat waves, cold snaps, and dry spells could push certain species over the edge.
But the slowness and difficulties of policymaking make cataclysmic tales alluring, for they promise a political shortcut.
But the easy collapse of the insectageddon narrative is concerning. If contemporary environmental politics is characterized by anything, it is the near certitude with which cataclysmic stories get repeated. In this case, the German government prematurely sacrificed agricultural chemicals in order to appease catastrophists. Perhaps RoundUp should be phased out eventually, but I suspect that German farmers will be very wary the next time tales of impending environmental doom drive radical policymaking.
The problem is that we do face real environmental challenges. Some insect species are consistently declining, even if insects as a whole are more resilient than we give them credit for. But the insectaggedon papered over these complexities.
The slowness and difficulties of policymaking make cataclysmic tales alluring, for they promise a political shortcut. They offer a seemingly undeniable truth, one that can be used to push pesky disagreements aside and almost unilaterally implement dramatic changes. But the more that these stories get found out, as overly simplistic or premature, the less power they will have. And that risks undermining trust in science, trust that we need if we are to solve the problems we face.
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